{"id":249,"date":"2010-09-29T16:15:13","date_gmt":"2010-09-29T14:15:13","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/?p=249"},"modified":"2010-09-29T16:15:13","modified_gmt":"2010-09-29T14:15:13","slug":"%e4%bb%80%e4%b9%88%e6%98%af%e7%bb%9f%e8%ae%a1%ef%bc%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/?p=249","title":{"rendered":"\u4ec0\u4e48\u662f\u7edf\u8ba1\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cA\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">decision<\/span> was wise, even though it led to disastrous consequences, if with the\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">evidence <\/span>at hand indicated it was the\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">best<\/span> one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible consequences, if it was\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">unreasonable<\/span> to expect those consequences\u201d<\/p>\n<p>Herodotus, c.500 BC<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">\uff08We should do the best with what we have, not what we wished we had.\uff09<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">\u201cProbability theory is nothing but\u00a0<span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">common sense<\/span> reduced to calculation\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">Pierre-Simon Laplace<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">(1749 \u20131827)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">Occam\u2019sRazor<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">\u201cFrustrafit perplura,quod fieri potestperpauciora.\u201d&#8212;\u201cIt is vain to do with more what can be done with less.\u201d<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">William of Occam<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\">(1288 \u20131348 AD)<\/span><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #000000;\"><span style=\"line-height: normal; color: #ff0000;\">\uff08Everything else being equal, we favour models which are simple.\uff09<\/span> <\/span><\/span><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u201cA\u00a0decision was wise, even though it led to disastrous &#8230;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[20],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-249","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-20"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=249"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":251,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/249\/revisions\/251"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=249"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=249"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"http:\/\/astronomy.lamost.org\/blog\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=249"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}