“A decision was wise, even though it led to disastrous consequences, if with the evidence at hand indicated it was the best one to make; and a decision was foolish, even though it led to the happiest possible consequences, if it was unreasonable to expect those consequences”
Herodotus, c.500 BC
（We should do the best with what we have, not what we wished we had.）
“Probability theory is nothing but common sense reduced to calculation”
Pierre-Simon Laplace
(1749 –1827)
Occam’sRazor
“Frustrafit perplura,quod fieri potestperpauciora.”—“It is vain to do with more what can be done with less.”
William of Occam
(1288 –1348 AD)
（Everything else being equal, we favour models which are simple.）